trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -52.7% | -57.2% | 20% | 20% | -56.8% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -52.7% | -57.2% | 20% | 20% | -56.8% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -37.6% | -43.5% | 43% | 14% | -14.4% |
| all | 16 | -10.2% | -18.7% | 31% | 12% | +48.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.7% | 12% | +48.4% |
| 10% | -26.5% | 12% | +34.2% |
| 15% | -33.6% | 12% | +21.3% |
| 20% | -40.1% | 12% | +9.4% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $1 | +$1 | +73% |
| Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | -37% |
| Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 16? | Apr 21 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 20? | Mar 23 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Feb 19 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Feb 17 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fumitake Fujita be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the | Feb 16 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Taro Kono be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 | Feb 16 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66? | Feb 15 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026 | Feb 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Yōko Kamikawa be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2 | Feb 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026 | Feb 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3AM ET | Feb 12 | $148 | +$148 | +100% |