Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7ed5…20f1 sports 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$536 (+48%) realized +$560 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$209
other 30% +$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +12.4% +1.7% 55% 50% +29.7%
≤30d 20 +12.4% +1.7% 55% 50% +29.7%
≤90d 20 +12.4% +1.7% 55% 50% +29.7%
all 20 +12.4% +1.7% 55% 50% +29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.7% 50% +29.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.0% 50% +17.3%
15% -16.9% 45% +6.0%
20% -25.1% 40% -4.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$26 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$560
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 46¢ $112 $102 −$10 (-9%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 44¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $76 −$75 -99%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 +$37 +51%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $127 +$181 +143%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 +$110 +269%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $59 +$70 +119%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 +$4 +30%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$61 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $118 +$60 +51%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$1 -7%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$47 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $60 13m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $54 31m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 32m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 28¢ $26 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 26¢ $26 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $76 3h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 49¢ $22 4h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $52 15h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $44 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $36 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $20 17h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $25 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $71 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $309 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $30 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 20h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $20 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 20h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $60 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $151 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 26h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $9 40h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $59 40h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $19 40h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $112 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.44 · official $192.65 · 39 history records