Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ed5…8165 sports 420 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$2,266 (-8%) realized −$2,950 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%185W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$287est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$201
7 days−$440
14 days−$2,264
30 days−$2,268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,825
other 3% −$61
crypto 0% +$12
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -11.0% -19.4% 52% 45% -20.4%
≤30d 147 -32.5% -38.9% 38% 34% -34.6%
≤90d 378 -15.1% -23.2% 44% 41% -19.8%
all 414 -13.4% -21.6% 45% 42% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 42% -19.3%
10% -29.1% 38% -27.0%
15% -36.0% 32% -34.1%
20% -42.2% 23% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$53 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$466
Realized−$2,950
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses185 / 229
Est. fees paid−$287
Open positions6
Markets (closed)414 / 420
History coverage104d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner LOS 58¢ 100¢ $140 $241 +$101 (+72%)
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner LOS 70¢ 100¢ $90 $128 +$38 (+42%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 49¢ 46¢ $62 $59 −$3 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 78¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+61%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $7 $5 −$3 (-34%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 55¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $11 +$5 +46%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $21 +$7 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 +$11 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $31 +$2 +8%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $226 +$21 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$6 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $53 +$59 +112%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $11 +$5 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$11 +51%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$15 +70%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $166 +$90 +54%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $124 +$61 +49%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $16 +$7 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $21 +$4 +20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $63 +$3 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 +$50 +236%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $21 +$8 +38%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $31 +$6 +20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $105 +$31 +29%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $42 +$64 +152%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $43 −$5 -11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $85 −$4 -5%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $116 −$77 -66%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 +$6 +36%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$31 +149%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $53 +$30 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $2 15m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $11 16m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $53 16m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 55¢ $21 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 55¢ $53 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 2h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 73¢ $21 3h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 71¢ $21 3h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 69¢ $52 3h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 56¢ $53 4h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 59¢ $42 4h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 59¢ $53 4h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $183 4h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 63¢ $53 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 52¢ $16 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 60¢ $53 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 40¢ $64 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 58¢ $53 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 59¢ $53 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $31 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $21 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $11 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $21 7h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $50 10h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $52 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 45¢ $53 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $11 21h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $31 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.64 · official $465.64 (match) · 1129 history records