Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7E 0x7ed5…38e2 world 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate55%36W / 29L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$2
other 31% $0
sports 21% +$8
politics 12% +$3
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.2% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 25 -3.0% -12.2% 48% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 40 -1.8% -11.1% 48% 2% -9.2%
all 65 +9.2% -1.2% 55% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 6% -9.1%
10% -10.7% 3% -17.8%
15% -19.3% 3% -25.7%
20% -27.2% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage527d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $47 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $23 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $13 −$3 -24%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $46 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $122 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 +$3 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $34 −$2 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $54 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $36 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 −$1 -39%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 +13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $44 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $42 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $45 $0 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $318 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $275 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $294 +$9 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $266 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 19 $1 $0 +20%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $46 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $47 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $25 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $48 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $19 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $35 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $4 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $24 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $29 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.26 · official $42.48 (match) · 229 history records