Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ed6…cafe other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,754 (+1%) realized +$1,754 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$1,032per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$789now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$65
other 35% +$1,657
sports 13% +$140
culture 4% −$5
economics 2% −$4
world 1% −$14
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 84 -11.7% -20.1% 10% 6% -7.9%
all 122 -3.9% -13.0% 13% 10% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 10% -8.2%
10% -21.4% 9% -17.0%
15% -29.0% 9% -25.0%
20% -35.9% 8% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,485) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$12 · ×15.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$789
Realized+$1,754
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,032
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $789 $789 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $256 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,594 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,269 −$5 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $4,547 −$7 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,885 −$4 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,861 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 04 $1,250 +$1 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $490 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,485 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $4,176 −$5 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 21 $1,125 +$968 +86%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $2,476 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,573 −$2 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 07 $694 +$1,697 +245%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $4,008 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,974 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,455 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $946 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $828 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,194 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,308 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $430 $0 -0%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Apr 10 $40 −$8 -21%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $641 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1,880 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $444 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $447 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $256 33m
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $256 2h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $345 5h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $345 7h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $314 29h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $315 31h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $323 47h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $323 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $789 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,540 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,543 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,585 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,587 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,630 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,632 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,667 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,669 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,649 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,650 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,568 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,570 15d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,643 15d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,646 15d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,230 15d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,231 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,271 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $789.43 · official $789.43 (match) · 424 history records