Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7E 0x7edc…a54a crypto 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$88 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +202% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +152% what you keep after slip
Net edge+152%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$3
crypto 23% +$88
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+173.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +201.9% +173.2% 80% 60% +161.0%
≤30d 5 +201.9% +173.2% 80% 60% +161.0%
≤90d 5 +201.9% +173.2% 80% 60% +161.0%
all 5 +201.9% +173.2% 80% 60% +161.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +173.2% 60% +161.0%
10% +147.0% 60% +136.0%
15% +123.2% 60% +113.2%
20% +101.3% 60% +92.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +188% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +202% · $-wt +188% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$11 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.29 per $1 lost it wins $9.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$55 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$36 +682%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.09 · official $149.09 (match) · 22 history records