Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7edc…ea1d sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$971 (+27%) realized +$1,057 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +153% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +95% what you keep after slip
Net edge+95%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$797
crypto 8% +$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+129.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +153.3% +129.2% 69% 69% +25.2%
≤30d 13 +153.3% +129.2% 69% 69% +25.2%
≤90d 13 +153.3% +129.2% 69% 69% +25.2%
all 13 +153.3% +129.2% 69% 69% +25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +129.2% 69% +25.2%
10% ← realistic here +107.3% 69% +13.2%
15% +87.2% 69% +2.3%
20% +68.9% 69% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +153% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +331% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$233 vs −$260 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$654
Realized+$1,057
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Chicago Sky 21¢ 36¢ $140 $240 +$100 (+72%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 54¢ 54¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ 52¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 53¢ 6¢ $200 $21 −$179 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $203 +$205 +101%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $203 +$151 +74%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $337 −$200 -59%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $422 −$422 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $203 +$149 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$176 +58%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $344 +$258 +75%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $41 +$684 +1663%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $204 +$294 +144%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $246 −$220 -90%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $92 +$111 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $203 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 21¢ $102 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ $203 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $203 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 27¢ $102 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL San Diego Padres 94¢ $408 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 99¢ $353 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 29¢ $102 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 19¢ $102 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Toronto Blue Jays 81¢ $323 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 8¢ $15 5h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 13¢ $103 5h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 36¢ $102 5h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $203 6h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 16¢ $31 6h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 85¢ $352 6h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 44¢ $102 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $480 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 7h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $203 8h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $101 8h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 22¢ $41 8h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $602 8h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $101 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 8h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 47¢ $102 9h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 61¢ $40 9h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu SELL Ayla Aksu 100¢ $175 9h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 59¢ $101 9h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 57¢ $101 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $653.52 · official $653.52 (match) · 46 history records