Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7edd…3ae8 sports 233 markets active 3d ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$242 (+7%) realized +$255 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%125W / 98L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$77
14 days+$13
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$333
other 6% −$77
world 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$35
economics 1% −$5
tech 1% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -13.9% -22.1% 53% 43% -25.9%
≤30d 84 +6.2% -4.0% 61% 45% -5.8%
≤90d 206 +5.5% -4.5% 56% 47% -2.7%
all 223 +4.5% -5.5% 56% 48% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 48% -3.4%
10% -14.5% 44% -12.6%
15% -22.8% 43% -21.1%
20% -30.4% 40% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$255
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses125 / 98
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions10
Markets (closed)223 / 233
History coverage125d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 82¢ 99¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 52¢ 6¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-88%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 51¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-81%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +52%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $10 +$16 +158%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 19 $9 −$9 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $9 $0 +3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$23 +114%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$35 +172%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +190%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $40 +$1 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $24 +$25 +101%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $23 −$23 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $9 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $10 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $10 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $10 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $10 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $10 3d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $10 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 68¢ $10 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 45¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $20 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $13 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $10 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $10 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $10 6d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $10 6d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $10 6d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 60¢ $10 6d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $10 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $20 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.13 · official $65.13 (match) · 386 history records