Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7E
0x7ee3…cbb1
tech · 13 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
−$3,902 -71%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$87 · open −$3,574
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,136
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$3,574
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage30d
Avg bet$422
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$82
14 days−$82
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2,381 $425 −$1,956 (-82%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $467 $389 −$78 (-17%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,686 $196 −$1,490 (-88%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $103 $80 −$23 (-23%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $33 $17 −$17 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX raise at least $120B in its IPO? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 98% −$3,557
tech 2% −$82
world 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $21 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $182 12h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL Yes 0¢ $1 14h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 17h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL Yes 0¢ $1 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $28 18h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $277 22h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $21 22h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $31 22h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 22h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 23h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 35h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 36h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 36h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 36h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 36h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL Yes 0¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,136.20 · official $1,136.20 (match) · 1035 history records