Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ee5…5e7d sports 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-4%) realized −$104 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%35W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days−$74
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$71
other 25% +$79
politics 4% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +14.9% +3.9% 48% 42% -12.8%
≤30d 73 +14.9% +3.9% 48% 42% -12.8%
≤90d 73 +14.9% +3.9% 48% 42% -12.8%
all 73 +14.9% +3.9% 48% 42% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 42% -12.8%
10% -6.0% 38% -21.1%
15% -15.1% 37% -28.7%
20% -23.4% 32% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$20 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses35 / 38
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)73 / 77
History coverage9d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 76¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 74¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 69¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $57 +$81 +142%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $70 −$57 -82%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $89 +$9 +10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $81 −$59 -74%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 −$37 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $49 +$53 +109%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $47 +$54 +116%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $73 +$29 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $86 +$9 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 −$77 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 −$54 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$14 +93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$52 +103%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$20 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$9 +59%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 +$34 +48%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $12 +$10 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$8 -78%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$18 -60%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $26 +$8 +30%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $77 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +56%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 +$33 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$12 -26%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$18 +246%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$14 -46%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$36 +59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$17 -82%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$22 +217%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$4 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 26m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 31m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $77 56m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $79 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $138 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 13¢ $13 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $4 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 57¢ $5 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $5 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $50 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $42 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 82¢ $97 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 59¢ $23 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 21¢ $21 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 81¢ $65 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $81 5h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $38 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $102 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $101 5h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $24 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $5 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $70 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $47 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $49 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.43 · official $225.44 (match) · 162 history records