Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ee6…5f16 politics 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate6%4W / 64L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$16
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 68 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses4 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage632d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will James Harden lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $3 $0 -0%
Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Love win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Rachel Lord announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Davante Adams be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Josh Jacobs be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Mahomes be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin attend presidential inauguration? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mike Pompeo be Trump's Defense Secretary? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Peyton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will Nicolas Claxton lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will Miami (FL) win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Aaron Rodgers win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Betsy DeVos for Education Secretary? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
No Solana all time high in 2024? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 12 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 15h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $55 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $55 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 34d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 35d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 39d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 40d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 46d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 46d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 66d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $56 71d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $56 72d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $56 82d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $56 82d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 97d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 98d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $56 99d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $56 100d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 102d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 102d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 104d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 105d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $56 113d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $57 114d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $57 118d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $30 119d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $27 119d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records