Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ee8…432f sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$996 (-10%) realized −$882 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,338
7 days−$961
14 days−$1,070
30 days−$1,070
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1,179
other 9% −$220
crypto 9% +$519
world 3% −$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -23.3% -30.6% 45% 45% -18.4%
≤30d 40 -27.1% -34.1% 42% 42% -19.3%
≤90d 40 -27.1% -34.1% 42% 42% -19.3%
all 40 -27.1% -34.1% 42% 42% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 42% -19.3%
10% -40.4% 40% -27.0%
15% -46.1% 38% -34.1%
20% -51.4% 28% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$218 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$882
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage7d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 34¢ $300 $195 −$105 (-35%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 42¢ $28 $19 −$9 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $203 +$185 +91%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $304 +$284 +93%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 −$158 -78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$92 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $305 −$300 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $632 −$624 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $302 +$73 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $486 +$314 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$128 +63%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $304 −$304 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $407 +$540 +133%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $510 +$1,127 +221%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $559 −$548 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $255 −$250 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $357 −$350 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $290 −$290 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $462 +$338 +73%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $182 +$118 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $140 +$60 +43%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $320 +$46 +14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $346 −$342 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $898 +$519 +58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $476 −$475 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $286 −$282 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $141 −$138 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $89 +$52 +58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $326 −$322 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $94 −$92 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $77 −$76 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $49 +$30 +62%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 10 $60 −$59 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $304 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $304 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 14¢ $45 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $202 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $305 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $20 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $303 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $331 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $302 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $328 37h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $486 39h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $304 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $407 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $510 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $359 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $103 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $255 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $200 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $357 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $22 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $37 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $41 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $8 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $48 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $65 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.12 · official $214.17 (match) · 76 history records