Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ee9…2338 crypto 1132 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,867 (-10%) realized −$6,867 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate62%698W / 434L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$1,103
14 days−$1,103
30 days−$1,214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$5,221
weather 0% +$3
sports 0% −$49
world 0% −$12
politics 0% −$10
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -22.2% -29.6% 51% 40% -28.3%
≤30d 218 -7.5% -16.3% 57% 48% -23.8%
≤90d 950 -12.5% -20.8% 61% 36% -20.8%
all 1132 -12.2% -20.5% 62% 35% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 35% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 24% -24.6%
15% -35.1% 15% -31.9%
20% -41.4% 11% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$36 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,867
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses698 / 434
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1132 / 1132
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1132 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$9 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$14 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $75 −$68 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$22 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$21 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$46 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $174 −$78 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $187 −$9 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $266 −$105 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $303 −$84 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $146 −$94 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $432 −$179 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $13 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $75 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records