Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7eec…107f world 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-14%) realized −$47 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$17
other 19% −$30
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -39.9% -45.6% 20% 20% -33.2%
≤30d 10 -39.9% -45.6% 20% 20% -33.2%
≤90d 10 -39.9% -45.6% 20% 20% -33.2%
all 10 -39.9% -45.6% 20% 20% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.6% 20% -33.2%
10% -50.8% 20% -39.6%
15% -55.5% 10% -45.4%
20% -59.9% 10% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage7d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 27¢ 38¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+40%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 35¢ 32¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$8 -39%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$6 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $10 +$14 +138%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.55 · official $116.55 (match) · 20 history records