Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7E
0x7eec…c8ed
weather · 607 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,283 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,254 · open −$44
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$54
Realized−$1,254
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses92 / 502
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions101
Markets (closed)594 / 607
History coverage16d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day87.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 101 History 594 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$790
7 days−$1,154
14 days−$1,240
30 days−$1,254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 73¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? No 59¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+69%)
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 86¢ 87¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? No 82¢ 87¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 55¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 49¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 55¢ 53¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 24¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? No 65¢ 38¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 35¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+186%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+190%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? No 57¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+75%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? No 77¢ 64¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 39¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+155%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Moonshot have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Will Microsoft have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 31? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 5? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tennille R. McCoy be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C or below on June Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 38°C or higher on June 6? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on May 30? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 11? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on June 6? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on June 6? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 31? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 7? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 5? Jun 13 $0 $0 -477%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 11? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 37.5 on June 5, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in May 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on June 2? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rae Huang finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 4? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 7? Jun 13 $1 −$3 -246%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 6? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -879%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 7? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 57% −$521
other 18% −$177
politics 6% −$10
finance 6% −$182
culture 3% −$34
crypto 3% −$48
tech 3% +$4
sports 3% −$36
world 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 16¢ $2 2m
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 12m
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 18m
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY No 29¢ $1 19m
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY No 68¢ $3 45m
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri BUY No 86¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 13¢ $1 2h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $4 2h
Will Kraken have the third highest private market valuation on June 30 BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will Perplexity have the third highest private market valuation on Jun BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will Canva have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 20¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 54¢ $1 3h
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 20¢ $2 4h
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 11¢ $1 4h
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY No 13¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 61¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-55.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 532 -66.2% -69.5% 12% 4% -69.2%
≤30d 594 -50.9% -55.6% 15% 6% -65.4%
≤90d 594 -50.9% -55.6% 15% 6% -65.4%
all 594 -50.9% -55.6% 15% 6% -65.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover87.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.6% 6% -65.4%
10% ← realistic here -59.9% 6% -68.7%
15% -63.7% 5% -71.7%
20% -67.3% 4% -74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.43 · official $53.75 (match) · 1824 history records