Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7eee…7ed4 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$19 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$9
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$11
sports 15% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -19.6% -27.3% 50% 33% -6.8%
≤30d 24 +5.1% -4.9% 50% 38% -5.9%
≤90d 24 +5.1% -4.9% 50% 38% -5.9%
all 24 +5.1% -4.9% 50% 38% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 38% -5.9%
10% -14.0% 25% -14.9%
15% -22.3% 21% -23.1%
20% -29.9% 17% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage8d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$20 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $199 +$37 +19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$20 -71%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$3 +283%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +505%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $27 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 3h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 22¢ $3 13h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 46h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 47h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $36 47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $201 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $199 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 62¢ $8 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 93¢ $8 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 57¢ $1 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $1 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 67¢ $5 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 21¢ $1 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 30¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 20¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $1 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 44¢ $4 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 11¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.51 · official $29.51 (match) · 60 history records