Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ef1…0627 sports 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,171 (-25%) realized +$318 · open −$3,489
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%66W / 72L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$242
14 days−$45
30 days+$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$3,069
sports 37% −$91
other 1% −$21
crypto 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -28.9% -35.7% 37% 33% -43.2%
≤30d 138 -16.5% -24.5% 48% 39% -6.4%
≤90d 138 -16.5% -24.5% 48% 39% -6.4%
all 138 -16.5% -24.5% 48% 39% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 39% -6.4%
10% -31.7% 30% -15.4%
15% -38.3% 22% -23.6%
20% -44.4% 17% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$14 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$318
Unrealized−$3,489
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses66 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions6
Markets (closed)138 / 144
History coverage30d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 20¢ $2,682 $20 −$2,662 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No $340 $6 −$334 (-98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ $327 $1 −$326 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No $113 $1 −$112 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No $21 $0 −$21 (-98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 69¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $36 −$2 -4%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $26 −$3 -11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $15 −$2 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $211 −$211 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $67 −$14 -21%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $11 −$1 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$11 +53%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$33 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $28 +$8 +28%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 10 $6 +$1 +24%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $6 +$3 +41%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $7 +$3 +36%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $4 −$3 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $6 −$3 -48%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $1,107 +$45 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 +$5 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $433 −$8 -2%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $1 +$1 +125%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $103 +$11 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $108 +$178 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 03 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $5 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $2 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $1 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $3 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $4 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $5 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $2 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $1 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $2 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $2 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 24h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $9 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 29h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $23 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $6 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.06 · official $28.06 (match) · 474 history records