Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

7E 0x7efe…2e32 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$585 (+1%) realized −$112 · open +$697

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +641% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +494% what you keep after slip

Net edge+494%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown60%max

Avg bet$7,391per market

Trades / day8.6pace

Fees−$46est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$42,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+570.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+640.9%	+570.3%	67%	67%	-7.1%
≤30d	3	+640.9%	+570.3%	67%	67%	-7.1%
≤90d	3	+640.9%	+570.3%	67%	67%	-7.1%
all	3	+640.9%	+570.3%	67%	67%	-7.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.6 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+570.3%	67%	-7.1%
10% ← realistic here	+506.2%	67%	-15.9%
15%	+447.6%	33%	-24.1%
20%	+393.9%	33%	-31.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +641% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,084 vs −$810 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$42,154

Realized−$112

Unrealized+$697

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$46

Open positions5

Markets (closed)3 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$7,391

Trades / day8.6

Drawdown60%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$14,750	$16,799	+$2,049 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$14,750	$12,442	−$2,307 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	13¢	$4,481	$5,396	+$915 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	12¢	$4,695	$4,757	+$62 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$2,780	$2,760	−$21 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$4,073	+$922	+23%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$815	−$810	-100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$7,523	+$1,247	+17%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$23	28m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$140	30m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$4,096	31m
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4,995	33m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$560	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	81¢	$4,073	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$4,635	1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	BUY Under	82¢	$815	2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$2,858	26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$3,513	26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$685	26h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1,663	26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	98¢	$8,594	26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	98¢	$140	26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	84¢	$2,194	27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	84¢	$19	27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	84¢	$5,310	27h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$2,938	47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$15,121	2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$15,120	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,153.91 · official $42,153.91 (match) · 23 history records