Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:23:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7f02…97c5 other 77 markets active 8h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$139 (+1%) realized +$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%15W / 60L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$13
politics 18% −$10
other 18% +$60
sports 2% +$99
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +17.8% +6.6% 20% 20% -7.5%
≤30d 18 +9.5% -1.0% 17% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 51 -8.5% -17.2% 12% 10% -10.3%
all 75 +1.0% -8.6% 20% 13% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 13% -9.0%
10% -17.4% 13% -17.7%
15% -25.3% 12% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 12% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$2 · ×8.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses15 / 60
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage600d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $138 $138 +$0 (+0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $87 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $38 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $6 +$5 +90%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $15 +$13 +83%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $123 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $447 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $216 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $307 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $439 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $223 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 26 $213 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 25 $223 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $226 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $202 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $419 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $211 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $319 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $227 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $209 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $16 +$13 +79%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-03-14? Apr 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Apr 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 06 $25 +$15 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 8h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 9h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $6 4d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $60 5d
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $138 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 17d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $15 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.78 · official $197.78 (match) · 291 history records