Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f06…6f27 sports 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (271 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-14%) realized −$23 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day271.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$21
other 24% −$7
crypto 14% −$20
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (271 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -20.4% -28.0% 33% 31% -37.9%
≤30d 36 -20.4% -28.0% 33% 31% -37.9%
≤90d 36 -20.4% -28.0% 33% 31% -37.9%
all 36 -20.4% -28.0% 33% 31% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover271.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 31% -37.9%
10% ← realistic here -34.9% 31% -43.8%
15% -41.1% 28% -49.3%
20% -46.9% 22% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions23
Markets (closed)36 / 59
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day271.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 37¢ 34¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium leading at halftime? No 54¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 63¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 38¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 47¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? No 52¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? No 59¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 60¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 67¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Las Vegas Aces 49¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 63¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 −$4 -39%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $13 −$7 -50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8 −$2 -20%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$3 +136%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -47%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $2 +$1 +72%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -50%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $2 +$1 +74%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$1 -20%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $2 +$4 +177%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$3 +145%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1 8m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 9m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 9m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 9m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $1 12m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $1 12m
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $1 24m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $1 26m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $1 26m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $1 26m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $1 26m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 27m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 27m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 31m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 39¢ $1 33m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 62¢ $1 33m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 33m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 39¢ $1 33m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 35m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 35m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 36m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $1 38m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $1 38m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $1 43m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 44m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1 46m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 46m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1 46m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 46m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $1 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.90 · official $70.93 (match) · 277 history records