Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f06…1204 world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$90 (-20%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% $0
world 25% $0
sports 20% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-45.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -40.0% -45.7% 0% 0% -49.8%
all 5 -40.0% -45.7% 0% 0% -49.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.7% 0% -49.8%
10% -50.9% 0% -54.6%
15% -55.7% 0% -59.0%
20% -60.0% 0% -63.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$45 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage75d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $245 $245 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mantova 1911 (-1.5) May 01 $48 −$48 -100%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? May 01 $71 $0 +0%
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5) Apr 19 $42 −$42 -100%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $245 1h
Spread: Mantova 1911 (-1.5) BUY Mantova 1911 5¢ $24 49d
Spread: Mantova 1911 (-1.5) BUY Mantova 1911 5¢ $24 49d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $36 49d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $35 49d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 49d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $35 49d
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5) BUY Kasımpaşa SK 5¢ $20 61d
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5) BUY Kasımpaşa SK 5¢ $21 61d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 61d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 61d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 61d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 61d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL Yes 2¢ $3 74d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL Yes 2¢ $2 74d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL Yes 2¢ $3 74d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL Yes 2¢ $2 74d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 74d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 BUY Yes 2¢ $5 75d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 BUY Yes 2¢ $5 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.67 · official $244.42 (match) · 20 history records