Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7F 0x7f0c…ea2c other 14 markets active 5d ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$880 (-18%) realized −$985 · open +$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$3,005now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$37
crypto 22% +$56
sports 20% −$1,000
finance 18% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -48.4% -53.3% 50% 0% -53.3%
≤90d 2 -48.4% -53.3% 50% 0% -53.3%
all 2 -48.4% -53.3% 50% 0% -53.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.3% 0% -53.3%
10% -57.8% 0% -57.7%
15% -61.9% 0% -61.8%
20% -65.6% 0% -65.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$1,000 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$3,005
Realized−$985
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions12
Markets (closed)2 / 14
History coverage22d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 88¢ 99¢ $900 $1,017 +$117 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $415 $416 +$1 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $385 $317 −$68 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $193 $247 +$54 (+28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $261 $246 −$15 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $195 $221 +$26 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $211 $153 −$58 (-28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $119 $141 +$22 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $80 $104 +$24 (+30%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $53 $61 +$8 (+15%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $41 −$3 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $41 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,002 +$32 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $1,010 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $904 27d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $45 27d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $45 27d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $55 27d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $82 27d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $122 27d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $198 27d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $200 27d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $217 27d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $268 27d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $395 27d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $425 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $1,002 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,004.51 · official $3,006.82 (match) · 42 history records