Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7F 0x7f0c…ca30 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+5%) realized +$5 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 2 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 2 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.3%
all 2 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 0% -8.3%
10% -17.1% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage9d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 86¢ $75 $81 +$6 (+8%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 68¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $24 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $10 46m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $31 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $10 6h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 76¢ $32 6h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $31 8h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $10 31h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $10 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $24 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $75 5d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $30 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $30 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $30 6d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $10 8d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $24 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.74 · official $132.75 (match) · 16 history records