Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7F 0x7f0e…4933 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,467 (+44%) realized +$1,359 · open +$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$414per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,604
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +57.7% +42.7% 100% 86% +37.7%
≤30d 7 +57.7% +42.7% 100% 86% +37.7%
≤90d 7 +57.7% +42.7% 100% 86% +37.7%
all 7 +57.7% +42.7% 100% 86% +37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.7% 86% +37.7%
10% +29.0% 43% +24.6%
15% +16.6% 43% +12.5%
20% +5.1% 29% +1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$214 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$552
Realized+$1,359
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$414
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs LGD Gaming 47¢ 58¢ $444 $552 +$108 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $300 +$53 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $276 +$130 +47%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $8 +$2 +18%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $724 +$78 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,254 +$994 +79%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$231 +226%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $199 +$9 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 47¢ $451 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $353 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 75¢ $99 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 90¢ $100 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 90¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $406 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $265 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 84¢ $8 7h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $802 7h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 90¢ $502 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 90¢ $223 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $11 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $2,248 9h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $333 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $3 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $1,251 29h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $102 30h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $209 30h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 95¢ $198 31h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 89¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $552.28 · official $552.75 (match) · 21 history records