Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7F 0x7f0f…1366 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$989 (-16%) realized −$887 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$688
other 39% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.0% +5.9% 58% 58% -20.3%
≤30d 12 +17.0% +5.9% 58% 58% -20.3%
≤90d 12 +17.0% +5.9% 58% 58% -20.3%
all 12 +17.0% +5.9% 58% 58% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.9% 58% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -4.2% 50% -27.9%
15% -13.5% 42% -34.9%
20% -22.0% 33% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$366 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,298
Realized−$887
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 52¢ $500 $599 +$99 (+20%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 28¢ $400 $203 −$196 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $102 +$169 +165%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $992 +$148 +15%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $52 +$79 +154%
Spread: England (-4.5) Jun 27 $451 −$419 -93%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $486 −$53 -11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $387 −$370 -96%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $511 −$500 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $508 +$306 +60%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $509 −$488 -96%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $203 +$53 +26%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $358 +$470 +132%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $102 +$49 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $407 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $271 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $508 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $511 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $131 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $102 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $52 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,140 1h
Spread: England (-4.5) SELL England 1¢ $11 2h
Spread: England (-4.5) SELL England 1¢ $21 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $992 9h
Spread: England (-4.5) BUY England 14¢ $451 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $433 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $486 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $387 27h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $511 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $815 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 2¢ $20 27h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $257 27h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $203 28h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $509 28h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $828 28h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 28h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $358 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $508 32h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $102 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,298.39 · official $1,298.46 (match) · 30 history records