Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7F 0x7f14…29d1 sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,295 (+25%) realized +$1,423 · open −$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%25W / 16L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,732
7 days+$1,575
14 days+$1,662
30 days+$1,662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,536
other 4% −$26
crypto 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.1% -10.5% 52% 36% +22.2%
≤30d 41 +4.4% -5.6% 61% 44% +20.9%
≤90d 41 +4.4% -5.6% 61% 44% +20.9%
all 41 +4.4% -5.6% 61% 44% +20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 44% +20.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 32% +9.3%
15% -22.9% 24% -1.3%
20% -30.4% 22% -10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$16 · ×4.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.41 per $1 lost it wins $7.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1,423
Unrealized−$128
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses25 / 16
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage11d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 5¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 3¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2,272 +$436 +19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $407 +$94 +23%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $411 +$275 +67%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $738 +$602 +82%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$325 +325%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -17%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $41 −$41 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $35 +$18 +52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $100 −$11 -11%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $153 −$89 -58%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +103%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $55 +$37 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $35 −$3 -8%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $15 +$3 +21%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $22 +$2 +7%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $119 +$23 +20%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $46 −$2 -5%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $15 +$4 +27%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $5 +$1 +22%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $63 +$51 +81%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $26 +$2 +9%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $29 −$18 -64%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $40 −$5 -13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $25 +$24 +99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $25 +$10 +40%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $10 +$7 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,608 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $54 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $5 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $35 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $5 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 47m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 2¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 4¢ $6 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 6¢ $8 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 4¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $453 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $429 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $480 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $510 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 70¢ $53 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 70¢ $21 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 70¢ $17 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 70¢ $9 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $137 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $254 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 26¢ $54 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 26¢ $447 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.89 · official $2.94 (match) · 351 history records