Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

7F 0x7f15…debc world 3 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$312per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+0.1%	-9.5%	50%	0%	-9.5%
≤30d	3	+0.0%	-9.5%	33%	0%	-9.5%
≤90d	3	+0.0%	-9.5%	33%	0%	-9.5%
all	3	+0.0%	-9.5%	33%	0%	-9.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.5%	0%	-9.5%
10%	-18.2%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-26.1%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-33.3%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.03 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)3 / 3

History coverage13d

Avg bet$312

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 3 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	Jun 28	$322	$0	+0%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202	Jun 28	$301	$0	+0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Jun 15	$313	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	SELL No	95¢	$322	22m
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$322	1h
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202	SELL No	95¢	$301	1h
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202	BUY No	95¢	$301	2h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	SELL No	95¢	$312	12d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	SELL No	95¢	$1	12d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	BUY No	95¢	$313	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records