Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7F 0x7f15…52f1 other 298 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$551 (+1%) realized +$526 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate70%178W / 76L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$7,182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$18
14 days+$73
30 days+$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$101
sports 33% +$597
crypto 1% +$8
politics 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +19.2% +7.8% 85% 38% -8.8%
≤30d 49 +1.9% -7.8% 78% 24% -6.1%
≤90d 223 -1.1% -10.5% 71% 32% -8.4%
all 254 -3.1% -12.3% 70% 32% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 32% -8.5%
10% -20.7% 16% -17.3%
15% -28.4% 11% -25.2%
20% -35.4% 9% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$40 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$7,182
Realized+$526
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses178 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions44
Markets (closed)254 / 298
History coverage150d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1,345 $1,368 +$23 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $902 $909 +$7 (+1%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $577 $596 +$19 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $580 $586 +$6 (+1%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $531 $525 −$6 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 98¢ $374 $393 +$18 (+5%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 97¢ $266 $292 +$26 (+10%)
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $204 $205 +$1 (+1%)
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+1%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 85¢ 91¢ $170 $182 +$12 (+7%)
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 99¢ 100¢ $158 $160 +$2 (+1%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 77¢ $178 $154 −$24 (-13%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $126 $149 +$23 (+19%)
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 70¢ 49¢ $204 $143 −$61 (-30%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $125 $127 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 76¢ $123 $115 −$8 (-7%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 92¢ $81 $92 +$12 (+14%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $96 $88 −$8 (-8%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 83¢ $89 $83 −$6 (-7%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $75 $82 +$7 (+9%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $86 $80 −$6 (-8%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 46¢ $118 $70 −$49 (-41%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $127 +$17 +13%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $291 +$9 +3%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 17 $9 −$8 -93%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $356 +$8 +2%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $39 +$61 +156%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 15 $69 +$41 +60%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9 +$8 +85%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $58 +$13 +23%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $1,141 −$138 -12%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 13 $212 +$7 +4%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $160 +$7 +5%
Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30? Jun 12 $813 +$7 +1%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 09 $19 $0 +2%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 09 $727 +$28 +4%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $511 +$50 +10%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $211 +$4 +2%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $283 +$3 +1%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $990 +$10 +1%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 07 $55 −$55 -100%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast hit 497 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 07 $54 +$4 +7%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $145 +$374 +258%
Will MrBeast hit 494 million subscribers by June 30? May 31 $82 +$2 +2%
UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion May 30 $165 +$7 +4%
Will MrBeast hit 491 million subscribers by June 30? May 26 $293 +$5 +2%
Will MrBeast hit 124.5 billion views by May 31? May 25 $297 −$292 -98%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $31 −$9 -29%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 25 $1,691 +$20 +1%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $103 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $55 +$1 +2%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $73 +$2 +2%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $44 +$56 +127%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 25 $108 +$12 +11%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $389 +$3 +1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A se May 25 $283 +$23 +8%
Will Federico Dimarco lead Serie A in assists during the 2025-26 seaso May 25 $64 +$7 +11%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the player with the most assists in the 2025–2 May 24 $42 +$2 +5%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 24 $542 +$17 +3%
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu May 24 $29 −$3 -10%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $69 +$31 +45%
Will MrBeast hit 124 billion views by May 31? May 23 $182 +$32 +18%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 123.5 billion views by May 31? May 21 $461 +$80 +17%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $17 −$12 -70%
Will Aston Villa score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 20 $32 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $720 1h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $244 1h
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 96¢ $43 8h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 66¢ $47 8h
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 92¢ $2 9h
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 92¢ $74 9h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 55¢ $70 10h
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 99¢ $158 10h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 55¢ $12 11h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 66¢ $19 11h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 96¢ $101 11h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 99¢ $204 13h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 92¢ $48 14h
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $5 14h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes $0 2d
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes $0 2d
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 95¢ $476 2d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 95¢ $381 2d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 86¢ $86 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 67¢ $54 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 67¢ $2 3d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $80 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 67¢ $6 3d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $3 3d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 3d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $130 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,182.40 · official $7,181.00 (match) · 1362 history records