Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7f16…2d56 other 364 markets active 3h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,598 (+3%) realized +$2,597 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate79%286W / 75L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$50
14 days+$50
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$2,709
crypto 26% −$379
weather 16% −$188
sports 14% +$440
economics 1% +$5
finance 1% −$9
world 1% +$3
politics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.4% -16.2% 81% 25% -7.4%
≤30d 19 -14.4% -22.5% 74% 26% -6.7%
≤90d 128 +7.8% -2.5% 78% 47% -18.5%
all 361 +4.7% -5.2% 79% 42% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 42% -6.9%
10% -14.3% 27% -15.8%
15% -22.6% 18% -24.0%
20% -30.2% 14% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$102 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized+$2,597
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses286 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)361 / 364
History coverage228d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 94¢ $110 $106 −$4 (-4%)
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $40 +$6 +14%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $550 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $108 +$12 +11%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 12 $300 +$1 +0%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 12 $500 +$11 +2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $46 +$21 +46%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 11? May 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 10? May 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 11 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 10? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 9? May 10 $2 +$3 +143%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma May 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 9? May 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 8? May 09 $3 +$2 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 8? May 09 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 8? May 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 7? May 08 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 7? May 08 $2 +$3 +177%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on May 8? May 06 $0 $0 -95%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $9 +$2 +20%
Spread: Everton FC (-1.5) May 05 $59 +$2 +4%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $21 +$9 +40%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $94 +$27 +29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Apr 16 $208 −$208 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 15? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 12 $30 +$17 +57%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $20 +$6 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 6? Apr 07 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 4? Apr 06 $13 +$10 +79%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 06 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 2? Apr 03 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Czechia 94¢ $100 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 97¢ $110 2d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 87¢ $40 5d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $200 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 5d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Canada 98¢ $400 6d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Canada 99¢ $150 6d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Canada 94¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 6d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Czechia 91¢ $54 6d
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) SELL Czechia 97¢ $103 6d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Czechia 84¢ $50 6d
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) BUY Czechia 95¢ $100 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $60 7d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY Mexico 100¢ $300 7d
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Mexico 98¢ $500 7d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $50 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $48 7d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 68¢ $46 19d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 32¢ $2 19d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) BUY Chicago Sky 41¢ $2 19d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 38d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 10? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 10? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 38d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 10? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.97 · official $260.97 (match) · 1412 history records