trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? | Yes | 37¢ | 36¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | -25% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $3 | −$2 | -80% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? | Jun 10 | $2 | −$1 | -46% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? | Jun 07 | $5 | −$5 | -95% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 04 | $9 | −$1 | -7% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -69.6% | -72.5% | 0% | 0% | -80.5% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -62.7% | -66.2% | 0% | 0% | -57.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -62.7% | -66.2% | 0% | 0% | -57.9% |
| all | 9 | -62.7% | -66.2% | 0% | 0% | -57.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -66.2% | 0% | -57.9% |
| 10% | -69.5% | 0% | -61.9% |
| 15% | -72.4% | 0% | -65.6% |
| 20% | -75.1% | 0% | -69.0% |