Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f1b…aa6c other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$205 (-4%) realized −$212 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$2,475now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$125
14 days−$43
30 days−$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$32
sports 4% −$167
crypto 3% −$4
world 2% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -31.1% -37.6% 40% 40% -16.9%
≤30d 32 -43.0% -48.4% 34% 34% -25.9%
≤90d 35 -35.2% -41.3% 37% 37% -22.6%
all 40 -21.6% -29.1% 45% 45% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 45% -17.9%
10% -35.9% 32% -25.7%
15% -42.1% 25% -32.9%
20% -47.7% 22% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$42 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$2,475
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions36
Markets (closed)40 / 76
History coverage136d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 78¢ $278 $261 −$17 (-6%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 66¢ 64¢ $179 $172 −$7 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 82¢ $137 $147 +$10 (+7%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 52¢ $135 $131 −$4 (-3%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 79¢ 78¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 72¢ $74 $108 +$34 (+46%)
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $104 $106 +$2 (+2%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 83¢ 88¢ $94 $99 +$5 (+5%)
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 88¢ $79 $87 +$8 (+11%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 62¢ 62¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $71 $78 +$7 (+10%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 78¢ $59 $65 +$6 (+11%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $63 $62 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 70¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 78¢ $41 $58 +$17 (+42%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 32¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-2%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 39¢ $58 $50 −$8 (-13%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 49¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 68¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+9%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 85¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 36¢ $59 $44 −$15 (-26%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? No 70¢ 42¢ $71 $43 −$28 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $70 +$111 +158%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $37 +$72 +197%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $137 +$27 +20%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $137 +$54 +40%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 26 $70 +$71 +101%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $192 +$50 +26%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $221 +$35 +16%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $110 +$23 +21%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $34 +$19 +55%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $57 +$40 +70%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $118 +$23 +20%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Men's Group A - France vs. Czechia Jun 10 $58 −$58 -100%
Men's Group A - Canada vs. Switzerland Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Sweden Jun 10 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Japan win Pool C at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
NCAA Tournament: No. 16 seed to pull off an upset? Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
NCAA Tournament: No. 15 seed to pull off an upset? Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 22 $95 +$31 +33%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 22 $20 +$25 +126%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Augusta Nation Apr 09 $160 −$21 -13%
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $31 +$9 +29%
Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $50 +$10 +19%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $33 +$30 +92%
Will Puerto Rico win Pool A at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $33 +$34 +103%
Men's Quarterfinals - Slovakia vs. Germany Feb 18 $21 +$26 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $88 55m
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $47 57m
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 62¢ $83 1h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $59 1h
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 45¢ $39 1h
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $59 1h
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $106 1h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 88¢ $21 1h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $64 1h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $29 1h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $88 1h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 79¢ $76 6h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $30 7h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 48¢ $47 7h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 63¢ $113 7h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $86 9h
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $22 10h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $29 10h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY No 70¢ $72 3d
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 17d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $34 17d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 45¢ $59 17d
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $59 17d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $29 17d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $108 17d
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $79 17d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 77¢ $138 17d
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $72 17d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,474.65 · official $2,474.65 (match) · 130 history records