Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:53:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f1d…fbe2 crypto 296 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (452 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22,982 (+44%) realized +$22,982 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%135W / 161L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day451.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$1,840
other 4% −$235
world 1% −$741
sports 0% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (452 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 296 -17.3% -25.2% 46% 41% -7.8%
≤30d 296 -17.3% -25.2% 46% 41% -7.8%
≤90d 296 -17.3% -25.2% 46% 41% -7.8%
all 296 -17.3% -25.2% 46% 41% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover451.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 41% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 35% -16.6%
15% -38.9% 26% -24.6%
20% -44.9% 18% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late -86% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$90 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22,982
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses135 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)296 / 296
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$175
Trades / day451.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 296 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $173 +$27 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $355 +$45 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $601 −$201 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $277 −$267 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $188 +$53 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $325 +$475 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $692 +$107 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $123 +$77 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $160 +$240 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $143 −$136 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $277 +$123 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $546 −$534 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $278 −$268 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $102 −$97 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $177 −$169 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $143 +$57 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $147 −$143 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $135 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $279 −$270 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $172 +$28 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $194 −$187 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $116 +$84 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $143 +$57 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $169 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $183 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $172 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $193 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $91 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $87 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $194 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $188 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $145 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $165 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $123 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records