Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:52:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f1d…d2af crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$142 (-7%) realized −$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$619
sports 29% −$200
other 7% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -6.4% -15.3% 24% 24% +5.1%
≤30d 41 -6.4% -15.3% 24% 24% +5.1%
≤90d 41 -6.4% -15.3% 24% 24% +5.1%
all 41 -6.4% -15.3% 24% 24% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 24% +5.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 24% -5.0%
15% -30.8% 24% -14.1%
20% -37.6% 22% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$39 · ×3.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage2d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $53 +$282 +532%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $74 −$69 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $106 +$365 +344%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $105 +$125 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$200 +1116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $105 +$107 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$18 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$98 +194%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $85 −$80 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $74 −$70 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $153 −$150 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $103 −$102 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$100 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$6 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$32 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$35 -95%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Second half draw? Jun 25 $62 −$60 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $95 +$247 +259%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $59 −$57 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $56 −$55 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -82%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$15 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $335 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $53 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $21 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $430 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $230 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $218 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $18 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $212 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $49 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $31 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $149 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $51 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $53 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $21 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records