Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

7F 0x7f1f…f2f8 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$82 (+8%) realized +$73 · open +$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate82%23W / 5L

Drawdown82%max

Avg bet$37per market

Trades / day6.8pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit72%portable

Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+3.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	28	+14.4%	+3.5%	82%	64%	-2.7%
≤30d	28	+14.4%	+3.5%	82%	64%	-2.7%
≤90d	28	+14.4%	+3.5%	82%	64%	-2.7%
all	28	+14.4%	+3.5%	82%	64%	-2.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.5%	64%	-2.7%
10%	-6.4%	43%	-12.0%
15%	-15.4%	43%	-20.5%
20%	-23.7%	25%	-28.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late +15% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$38 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.41 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$59

Realized+$73

Unrealized+$9

Win rate (resolved)82%

Wins / losses23 / 5

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)28 / 29

History coverage4d

Avg bet$37

Trades / day6.8

Drawdown82%

Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner	Keyd	84¢	100¢	$50	$59	+$9 (+19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ	Jun 26	$41	+$32	+79%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$39	+$2	+5%
Valorant: Dplus vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season	Jun 26	$30	+$17	+55%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League	Jun 26	$50	−$50	-99%
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers	Jun 26	$98	+$15	+15%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul	Jun 26	$81	−$80	-99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 25	$79	+$29	+36%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A	Jun 25	$49	+$22	+45%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner	Jun 25	$51	+$29	+57%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$45	+$3	+7%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ	Jun 24	$45	+$6	+13%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$44	+$1	+2%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ	Jun 24	$44	+$6	+14%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN	Jun 24	$21	+$18	+83%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A	Jun 24	$44	−$44	-100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group	Jun 24	$41	+$16	+39%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick	Jun 24	$20	−$9	-43%
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon	Jun 24	$25	+$13	+50%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li	Jun 24	$28	+$16	+57%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$23	+$2	+10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$20	+$3	+16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$19	+$1	+7%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B	Jun 23	$9	+$9	+101%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner	Jun 23	$18	+$2	+13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$19	+$9	+46%
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group	Jun 22	$13	+$10	+75%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy - Map 2 Winner	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$15	+$3	+21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY Keyd	84¢	$50	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	95¢	$39	3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ	BUY MIBR Academy	55¢	$41	5h
Valorant: Dplus vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season	BUY DRX Academy	64¢	$30	15h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League	BUY Donstu Esports	75¢	$50	15h
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers	BUY Edmonton Elks	87¢	$98	22h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul	BUY The Huns Esports	61¢	$81	22h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY Sashi Esport	73¢	$79	27h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A	BUY Sharks	68¢	$49	30h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner	BUY ECHO	63¢	$51	31h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	93¢	$45	2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	98¢	$44	2d
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ	BUY Keyd	88¢	$45	2d
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A	BUY GamerLegion	85¢	$44	2d
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ	BUY MIBR Academy	87¢	$44	2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN	BUY Sharks	54¢	$21	2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group	BUY AM Gaming	71¢	$41	2d
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon	BUY Eva Marie Desvignes	66¢	$25	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	91¢	$23	2d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick	BUY largadosypelados	87¢	$20	2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	86¢	$20	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	93¢	$19	3d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner	BUY Sharks	88¢	$18	3d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B	BUY FOKUS	49¢	$9	3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	68¢	$19	3d
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group	BUY ReThink	56¢	$13	4d
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy - Map 2 Winner	BUY OXEN	60¢	$5	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	82¢	$15	4d
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li	BUY MIBR Academy	63¢	$28	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.49 · official $59.49 (match) · 53 history records