Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7F 0x7f20…7163 weather 227 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$483 (+5%) realized +$475 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +172% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +146% what you keep after slip
Net edge+146%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%64W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$746now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$618
7 days+$1,031
14 days−$100
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% +$385
world 25% −$128
sports 6% +$390
crypto 5% −$269
tech 5% +$33
other 3% −$3
economics 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+145.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 +266.9% +232.0% 28% 28% -26.1%
≤30d 177 +197.6% +169.2% 28% 27% -31.0%
≤90d 183 +192.0% +164.2% 30% 28% -21.9%
all 203 +171.7% +145.8% 32% 28% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +145.8% 28% -22.0%
10% +122.3% 26% -29.4%
15% +100.8% 24% -36.2%
20% +81.1% 23% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +172% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +379% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$29 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$746
Realized+$475
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses64 / 139
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions24
Markets (closed)203 / 227
History coverage138d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? Yes 31¢ 35¢ $54 $62 +$8 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Yes 45¢ 55¢ $51 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? Yes 29¢ 40¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $50 $53 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 26? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $36 $49 +$13 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 27? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $36 $43 +$7 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 27? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $36 $42 +$5 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 26? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $31 $41 +$10 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $33 $35 +$3 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $39 $35 −$4 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 26? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 26? Yes 24¢ 19¢ $37 $29 −$8 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? Yes 37¢ 52¢ $17 $25 +$7 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 27? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $22 $22 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 27? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $23 $11 −$12 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 26? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 26? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 26? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $24 $8 −$16 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C on June 26? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 26? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $17 $6 −$11 (-66%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 26? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 26? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $12 $3 −$10 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? Jun 26 $56 +$88 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 25 $23 +$82 +357%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 25? Jun 25 $45 −$44 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $46 +$98 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $25 −$23 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $51 +$62 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $11 +$213 +1983%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $38 −$36 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $68 +$71 +105%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $16 +$25 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 25? Jun 25 $38 −$36 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $25 +$80 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 24 $48 −$46 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 24 $41 +$102 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 24? Jun 24 $25 −$24 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $43 +$49 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $47 +$79 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 25? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25? Jun 24 $34 −$33 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 25? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? Jun 24 $39 −$38 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $23 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25? Jun 24 $59 −$57 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 23? Jun 24 $37 −$35 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $34 +$63 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 23 $86 +$209 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 23? Jun 23 $48 +$104 +217%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23? Jun 23 $40 −$39 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24? Jun 23 $39 −$37 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24? Jun 23 $59 −$57 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $45 +$80 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 24? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $47 +$88 +186%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 23 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 23 $42 −$41 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $44 −$43 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 24? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 23 $41 +$107 +259%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22? Jun 23 $24 −$23 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? Jun 22 $28 −$27 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 23? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 33¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 24¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $142 6h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $103 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $142 10h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $111 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $223 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 26? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? BUY Yes 29¢ $42 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $136 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $54 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $39 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $18 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 45¢ $52 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $19 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 25h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 26? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $746.33 · official $735.19 · 376 history records