Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7f21…fd1c
weather · 125 markets active 4h ago
2.0score
+$64 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$71 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses56 / 60
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)116 / 125
History coverage44d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 9 History 116 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$11
14 days−$42
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 83¢ 62¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 84¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Up 40¢ 94¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+136%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 80¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 69¢ 46¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 82¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Down 40¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 6? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 4? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 15? Yes 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 14? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +69%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 8? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 8? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -33%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$7 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 30? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 31? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 1? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 1? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 2? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 -42%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -65%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -36%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 31? May 31 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 26? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 23? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on May 22? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 25? May 30 $3 −$2 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 27? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 72% +$78
world 9% −$5
other 7% −$2
crypto 7% −$8
tech 4% $0
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 69¢ $0 4h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 16h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 16h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 40¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 40¢ $2 21h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 24h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 71¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 26h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 26h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 80¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 52¢ $1 33h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 79¢ $1 41h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $4 41h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $5 41h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $5 41h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $6 42h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 42h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 42h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -23.8% -31.0% 46% 27% -27.8%
≤30d 87 -1.0% -10.5% 40% 28% -15.2%
≤90d 116 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 26% -12.2%
all 116 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 26% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 26% -12.2%
10% -17.6% 16% -20.6%
15% -25.6% 12% -28.3%
20% -32.9% 9% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.49 · official $40.49 (match) · 329 history records