Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7F 0x7f21…dc40 crypto 1064 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$514 (+4%) realized +$513 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%545W / 511L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day138.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$657
7 days−$632
14 days−$566
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$471
other 2% +$34
sports 0% −$31
weather 0% +$1
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 530 +5.1% -4.9% 53% 45% -15.4%
≤30d 1056 +3.2% -6.7% 52% 47% -12.8%
≤90d 1056 +3.2% -6.7% 52% 47% -12.8%
all 1056 +3.2% -6.7% 52% 47% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 47% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 45% -21.2%
15% -23.7% 43% -28.8%
20% -31.2% 42% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$513
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses545 / 511
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1056 / 1064
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day138.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1056 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+70%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 228 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $75 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $205 −$202 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $581 −$428 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $225 −$18 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $229 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $439 −$100 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $95 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$7 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $388 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $389 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $221 −$11 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $94 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $130 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $126 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $126 −$31 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $94 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $94 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $144 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.11 · official $30.11 (match) · 3500 history records