Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f27…7a85 crypto 1291 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,582 (-27%) realized −$1,582 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%158W / 1133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$328
7 days−$730
14 days−$947
30 days−$945
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$1,035
other 28% −$196
sports 10% +$53
politics 7% −$194
world 7% −$245
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$14
finance 0% −$5
economics 0% −$8
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-49.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -76.6% -78.8% 8% 1% -57.8%
≤30d 225 -70.4% -73.3% 8% 4% -62.3%
≤90d 1291 -44.1% -49.4% 12% 10% -36.4%
all 1291 -44.1% -49.4% 12% 10% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.4% 10% -36.4%
10% ← realistic here -54.2% 9% -42.5%
15% -58.7% 8% -48.1%
20% -62.7% 8% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,582
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses158 / 1133
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1291 / 1291
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1291 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $27 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $29 +$6 +20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $23 +$1 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Jun 24 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$4 -198%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $13 −$26 -198%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Jun 24 $1 −$2 -200%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 28? Jun 24 $3 −$4 -102%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $36 −$19 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 29? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -101%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 24 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $234 −$117 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 29? Jun 24 $1 −$3 -192%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on May 29? Jun 24 $2 −$3 -193%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 26? Jun 24 $2 −$3 -194%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $25 −$49 -196%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 24 $1 −$2 -200%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 23 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $2 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 22, 2AM ET? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 7m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 7m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 17m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 17m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 32m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 32m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 47m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 47m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 57m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $27 57m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $29 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $23 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 2h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL No 1¢ $0 8h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 79¢ $71 9h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 79¢ $71 9h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 9h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 9h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 9h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 9¢ $19 9h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 72¢ $36 9h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 15¢ $6 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records