Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7F 0x7f28…7d8e other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$504 (+5%) realized +$538 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$275
14 days−$427
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +158.1% +133.5% 100% 100% +50.5%
≤30d 49 +4.0% -5.9% 43% 39% -1.7%
≤90d 57 +17.3% +6.1% 46% 42% -2.7%
all 57 +17.3% +6.1% 46% 42% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 42% -2.7%
10% -4.0% 35% -12.0%
15% -13.3% 32% -20.5%
20% -21.8% 32% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$109 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized+$538
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage44d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $140 $122 −$17 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $46 $27 −$19 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $149 +$19 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $188 +$23 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $44 +$114 +259%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $34 +$119 +348%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $93 −$89 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $67 +$14 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $65 −$53 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $188 −$182 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $18 −$5 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $196 −$20 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $125 −$87 -69%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $9 −$8 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $22 −$21 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $677 −$667 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $25 −$24 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $321 +$441 +137%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $428 −$269 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $233 +$317 +136%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $769 −$525 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $126 −$122 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $649 −$326 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $95 −$91 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $301 +$205 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $193 +$6 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $166 +$56 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $116 +$391 +338%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 28 $121 −$11 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $250 +$689 +276%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $331 +$44 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $25 −$23 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $112 −$35 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $265 +$22 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $149 +$106 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 26 $35 +$23 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 26 $437 −$34 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 26 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 26 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $83 +$256 +308%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $184 +$113 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $69 +$52 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $290 +$155 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $83 +$128 +154%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $68 +$36 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $146 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $114 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $94 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $57 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $74 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $154 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 27h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $188 39h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 39h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 39h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $158 45h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $153 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.66 · official $261.66 (match) · 415 history records