Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7F 0x7f29…f03d sports 1005 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30,325 (-6%) realized −$30,209 · open −$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%503W / 498L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$536per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$3,137est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,602
7 days+$447
14 days−$11,875
30 days−$11,131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$7,374
other 14% −$13,055
world 8% −$12,724
politics 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -4.1% -13.3% 55% 55% -7.6%
≤30d 178 +1.4% -8.2% 52% 51% -17.0%
≤90d 622 -15.5% -23.5% 45% 44% -35.6%
all 1001 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 50% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 50% -14.9%
10% -15.9% 48% -23.0%
15% -24.1% 46% -30.5%
20% -31.5% 43% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$540) neutral
Persistence
early +15% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$398 vs −$468 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$1,534
Realized−$30,209
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses503 / 498
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$3,137
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1001 / 1005
History coverage244d
Avg bet$536
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1001 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 46¢ 44¢ $500 $484 −$16 (-3%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 55¢ 55¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 57¢ 36¢ $250 $159 −$91 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $1,214 +$753 +62%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $506 +$371 +73%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $357 −$350 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $407 +$482 +119%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $660 +$467 +71%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $507 +$374 +74%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $355 +$317 +89%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $963 −$950 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $713 −$700 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $253 −$13 -5%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $202 +$125 +62%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 27 $253 +$201 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $609 +$233 +38%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $253 +$210 +83%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 26 $142 −$140 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $404 +$221 +55%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $508 −$500 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $914 +$961 +105%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $405 +$273 +67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $154 −$150 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $405 −$400 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $913 +$305 +33%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $456 +$376 +82%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $255 −$250 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $406 +$348 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $759 −$480 -63%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $356 +$457 +128%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$110 +55%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $508 −$500 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $1,016 +$724 +71%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,010 +$367 +36%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $152 −$150 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $497 −$492 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $505 −$500 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $1,820 −$1,800 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $1,449 +$318 +22%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,938 −$886 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,258 +$1,129 +50%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $709 −$709 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $783 −$657 -84%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,201 +$1,211 +101%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $408 −$400 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $1,325 +$450 +34%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $778 +$546 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,265 −$1,254 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $844 +$422 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $355 +$317 +89%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $305 −$192 -63%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $271 +$712 +262%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $507 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 30¢ $357 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $508 2h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $405 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $506 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1,214 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $407 6h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Cincinnati Reds 62¢ $428 7h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $442 7h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 85¢ $439 7h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 33¢ $153 8h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $507 9h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 100¢ $672 10h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $355 12h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $355 13h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 53¢ $507 13h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $609 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $255 26h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $108 26h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $132 26h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $328 26h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $454 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 27h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 43¢ $251 28h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $253 28h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $142 31h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $253 31h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 32h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ $253 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $609 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,533.98 · official $1,533.98 (match) · 2346 history records