Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f2c…48e4 other 193 markets active 35d ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$34,174,696 (+341091%) realized +$34,174,696 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +171% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +109% what you keep after slip
Net edge+109%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate25%74W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day70.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,841
tech 32% −$3,216
politics 8% −$807
culture 3% −$322
sports 3% −$258
economics 2% −$169
world 1% −$60
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+145.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +69.4% +53.3% 11% 11% +122.2%
≤30d 54 +69.4% +53.3% 11% 11% +122.2%
≤90d 267 +171.3% +145.5% 18% 18% -87.0%
all 267 +171.3% +145.5% 18% 18% -87.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +145.5% 18% -87.0%
10% ← realistic here +122.0% 17% -88.2%
15% +100.5% 17% -89.4%
20% +80.9% 17% -90.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +157% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +185% → late +129% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$35 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34,174,696
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses74 / 218
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)292 / 193
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day70.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 292 Trades
no open positions (147 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -160%
Will Fernando Alonso win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $13 −$233 -1801%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -160%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $2 +$62 +3271%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $0 +$2 +562%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 +139%
Will "Lorne" be the April film with the highest domestic gross on May Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$48 -8061%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sergio Perez win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$24 -2386%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 +266%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $4 −$3 -82%
Will Esteban Ocon win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 20 $0 +$4 +11123%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -103%
Will "Mother Mary" be the April film with the highest domestic gross o Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 +3%
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -160%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $74 +$40 +54%
Will "Wasteland Cop" be the April film with the highest domestic gross Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lance Stroll win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Alexander Albon win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -160%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liam Lawson win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 +15843%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$2 -188%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 +1186%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" be the April film with the highest domestic g Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -160%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -88%
Will Robin Toldens be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary el SELL Yes 5¢ $0 35d
Will voter turnout be 95% or higher in the 2026 Maltese general electi SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 35d
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 31m? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 35d
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 35d
Will OpenAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 202 SELL Yes 2¢ $1 35d
Will Stormers win? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 35d
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 35m? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 35d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be betwe SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35d
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 27m? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 35d
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 27m? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 35d
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 27m? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 35d
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 27m? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 35d
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 27m? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 35d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be betwe SELL Yes 2¢ $0 35d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be betwe SELL Yes 2¢ $0 35d
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 35d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be betwe SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be betwe SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be betwe BUY No 100¢ $20 35d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be at le BUY No 100¢ $20 35d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be less BUY No 95¢ $19 35d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be betwe BUY No 10¢ $2 35d
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election SELL Yes 69¢ $5 35d
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election SELL Yes 68¢ $5 35d
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election SELL Yes 60¢ $3 35d
Will Yang Jeong-mu win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electio BUY No 99¢ $20 35d
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi BUY No 55¢ $11 35d
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 27m? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35d
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records