Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f2d…a114 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% $0
world 27% +$1
politics 15% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 45% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 45% 0% -9.3%
all 49 -0.6% -10.1% 43% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage446d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $32 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $68 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $30 +$2 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $31 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $45 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 -24%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $22 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 11 $3 $0 -8%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2? Jul 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 11 $16 $0 +1%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $107K on July 9? Jul 09 $3 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 08 $3 $0 -10%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 27 $4 $0 -3%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $3 $0 -10%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $3 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $29 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $20 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $11 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $31 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $31 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $29 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $3 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $36 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $36 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $30 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $29 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $31 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $11 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $11 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records