Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
7F 0x7f32…e01d other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$121 (-14%) realized −$119 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$123
world 49% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 5 -40.1% -45.8% 20% 0% -29.5%
≤90d 5 -40.1% -45.8% 20% 0% -29.5%
all 5 -40.1% -45.8% 20% 0% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.8% 0% -29.5%
10% -51.0% 0% -36.2%
15% -55.7% 0% -42.4%
20% -60.1% 0% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$41 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$329
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage15d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $330 $329 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $332 −$1 -0%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 14 $57 −$55 -97%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 13 $68 −$66 -97%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.51 · official $328.51 (match) · 11 history records