Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

7F 0x7f32…d2c7 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3,748 (+34%) realized +$3,661 · open +$87

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate69%9W / 4L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$686per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Fees−$140est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$2,887now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2,004

7 days+$3,800

14 days+$3,483

30 days+$3,614

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+4.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+17.2%	+6.0%	67%	67%	+45.6%
≤30d	13	+15.6%	+4.6%	69%	62%	+33.8%
≤90d	13	+15.6%	+4.6%	69%	62%	+33.8%
all	13	+15.6%	+4.6%	69%	62%	+33.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.6%	62%	+33.8%
10%	-5.4%	62%	+21.0%
15%	-14.5%	54%	+9.3%
20%	-22.9%	54%	-1.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +30% → late +3% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$495 vs −$210 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.31 per $1 lost it wins $5.31

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$2,887

Realized+$3,661

Unrealized+$87

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses9 / 4

Est. fees paid−$140

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 16

History coverage18d

Avg bet$686

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Under	54¢	56¢	$2,800	$2,887	+$87 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 27	$1,516	+$844	+56%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$1,013	+$773	+76%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$356	+$554	+155%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5	Jun 26	$101	+$34	+34%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States?	Jun 26	$154	−$150	-98%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden?	Jun 25	$52	−$51	-97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$1,014	+$838	+83%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$1,989	+$1,008	+51%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$598	−$589	-98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$328	+$271	+83%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5	Jun 12	$198	+$130	+66%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5)	Jun 12	$190	+$1	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Will	BUY	21¢	$500	1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	56¢	$811	1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$2,028	5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	56¢	$1,013	29h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	64¢	$1,516	29h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States?	BUY Yes	14¢	$154	31h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 1.5	BUY Over	38¢	$356	32h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5	BUY Over	74¢	$101	32h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	35h
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia?	BUY Yes	1¢	$51	2d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden?	BUY Yes	1¢	$51	2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire	BUY	5¢	$82	3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$1,014	3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	66¢	$1,491	4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	65¢	$498	4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	45¢	$598	10d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	54¢	$328	12d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$329	15d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$198	15d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5)	BUY Mexico	100¢	$140	17d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5)	BUY Mexico	100¢	$50	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,887.20 · official $3,375.58 · 29 history records