Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7f34…a673 other 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$34 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate64%41W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$2
politics 19% +$9
sports 17% −$48
crypto 9% +$44
tech 1% +$5
finance 1% +$3
world 1% +$16
culture 0% −$13
economics 0% +$4
weather 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -36.6% -42.6% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 9 -15.7% -23.7% 33% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 16 +5.2% -4.8% 56% 38% -5.3%
all 64 +1.1% -8.6% 64% 22% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 22% -9.3%
10% -17.3% 9% -18.0%
15% -25.3% 5% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses41 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage527d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 97¢ 94¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-3%)
Macron out by July 31, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 27? No $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hanwha Life Esports make a roster change before July? Jun 28 $0 $0 -52%
Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in June 2026? Jun 28 $43 $0 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Jun 27 $47 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -94%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? Jun 04 $61 −$1 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $112 −$2 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $8 $0 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $11 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 24 $7 +$2 +34%
Discord IPO before 2027? May 22 $18 −$5 -26%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 09 $12 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? May 09 $11 +$9 +89%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026 May 09 $12 +$8 +72%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 12 $8 +$1 +13%
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting Apr 12 $16 +$4 +22%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 20 $11 $0 +0%
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Mar 17 $14 +$1 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 05 $44 +$6 +13%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Feb 18 $23 +$6 +26%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs WHITEBIRD (BO3) - CCT Europe S Feb 17 $54 −$32 -59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Gr Feb 17 $13 −$12 -89%
Brex IPO before 2027? Feb 17 $18 +$1 +4%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 17 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jan 29 $79 +$1 +1%
US tariff revenue up in Q4 2025? Jan 29 $1 +$2 +125%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Jan 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? Jan 08 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Jan 05 $28 +$6 +20%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Dec 30 $44 +$4 +10%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? Dec 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Dec 11 $39 +$2 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 05 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Dec 05 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $120 in November? Dec 05 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 28 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 06 $102 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Oct 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 27 $101 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 09 $101 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 19 $97 +$4 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 25 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? Apr 24 $92 +$4 +4%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 01 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $3,028 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No $0 21m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No $0 22m
Will Hanwha Life Esports make a roster change before July? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 1h
Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 4h
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership el BUY No 97¢ $49 11h
Will Hanwha Life Esports make a roster change before July? BUY Yes $0 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? SELL Yes 93¢ $46 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? SELL No $0 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? BUY No $2 16h
Macron out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 24h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? SELL Yes 48¢ $11 23d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 23d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 23d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? SELL Up 31¢ $31 23d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? SELL Up 31¢ $0 23d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 33¢ $4 23d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 33¢ $29 23d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? SELL Down 63¢ $49 23d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? SELL Down 63¢ $14 23d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Down 63¢ $16 23d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Down 63¢ $47 23d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? SELL Up 17¢ $8 23d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 16¢ $8 23d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? SELL Up 32¢ $11 23d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 31¢ $6 23d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 31¢ $4 23d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 32¢ $0 23d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? SELL Yes 49¢ $49 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.04 · official $47.04 (match) · 169 history records