Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7F 0x7f38…f132 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$117 (+13%) realized +$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$75
14 days+$152
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$108
other 23% $0
crypto 19% −$70
tech 12% +$12
politics 11% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +36.4% +23.4% 100% 100% +22.4%
≤30d 5 +15.3% +4.3% 80% 80% +11.1%
≤90d 5 +15.3% +4.3% 80% 80% +11.1%
all 5 +15.3% +4.3% 80% 80% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 80% +11.1%
10% -5.7% 60% +0.4%
15% -14.8% 40% -9.3%
20% -23.1% 40% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$70 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage21d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 27 $110 +$12 +11%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 20 $102 +$63 +62%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $101 +$77 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $111 +$30 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 05 $72 −$70 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records