Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7F 0x7f39…28da sports 379 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,140 (-4%) realized −$1,139 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%188W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$438
7 days+$82
14 days+$93
30 days−$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$1,400
other 27% +$356
crypto 2% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +9.6% -0.8% 53% 53% -8.4%
≤30d 208 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 49% -10.7%
≤90d 279 -3.2% -12.4% 51% 46% -10.5%
all 368 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 46% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 46% -12.6%
10% -21.7% 38% -20.9%
15% -29.2% 31% -28.6%
20% -36.2% 22% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$46 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$1,139
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses188 / 180
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions2
Markets (closed)368 / 379
History coverage280d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Under $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $81 −$78 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 20 $102 −$66 -65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $434 −$332 -76%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $81 +$30 +38%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $102 −$63 -62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $92 +$189 +206%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $192 +$119 +62%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $100 +$58 +58%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $64 +$67 +105%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$16 -79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $369 +$227 +61%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $99 +$24 +24%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $150 +$75 +50%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $151 −$150 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $71 +$65 +92%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$155 +154%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 +$41 +40%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $171 −$1 -1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $76 −$47 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $283 +$161 +57%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $151 +$63 +42%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$31 +62%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $100 +$83 +82%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $443 −$111 -25%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $76 +$47 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $242 +$96 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $98 +$42 +43%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$19 -38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $211 +$148 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $471 −$260 -55%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $753 −$105 -14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16 Jun 17 $31 +$84 +272%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $332 +$180 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $300 +$32 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $274 −$243 -89%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $192 −$122 -63%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $299 −$136 -46%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $106 −$73 -69%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$17 +90%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $300 +$68 +23%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $40 −$16 -40%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $26 −$26 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $37 +$40 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 51m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under $7 52m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/ BUY 36¢ $102 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $81 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN SELL 12¢ $36 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 16¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $81 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 33¢ $41 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $21 4h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 31¢ $20 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $102 6h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 44¢ $51 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $354 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $111 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $51 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $81 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? A SELL 14¢ $39 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $100 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $192 22h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $131 22h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under $4 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 36¢ $102 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 24¢ $20 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $64 24h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $99 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $150 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $151 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $86 28h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 66¢ $51 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.71 · official $55.70 · 695 history records