Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f3a…2997 other 105 markets active 6d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$11
politics 20% −$4
sports 15% +$21
world 15% −$13
economics 7% −$1
finance 7% −$2
crypto 6% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -16.0% -24.0% 0% 0% -24.0%
≤30d 5 -3.7% -12.8% 0% 0% -14.5%
≤90d 72 +20.7% +9.2% 1% 1% -9.7%
all 104 +13.8% +3.0% 1% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 1% -9.7%
10% -6.9% 1% -18.4%
15% -15.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -24.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$1 · ×76.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 103
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage92d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 44¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+103%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $69 −$11 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $30 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $40 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $169 +$51 +30%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $348 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 09 $1 $0 -29%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $215 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $5 $0 -6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 26 $1 $0 -10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $16 $0 -1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1 $0 -4%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $14 −$3 -23%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $40 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 14 $91 −$9 -10%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 06 $460 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 06 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $80 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $51 $0 -0%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Apr 06 $40 −$5 -12%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 05 $290 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 05 $70 $0 -0%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 05 $170 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $296 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $16 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 30¢ $12 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $16 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 30¢ $10 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $11 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 31¢ $7 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $8 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $13 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $13 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $15 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $22 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? SELL Yes $0 15d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $2 15d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 15d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 15d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 15d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $3 16d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $28 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY No $2 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 96¢ $34 16d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 17d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $7 17d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $20 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 82¢ $25 36d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 36d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.94 · official $0.00 · 1183 history records