Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f3b…11fb sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,097 (-6%) realized −$4,089 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%33W / 42L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$831per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$276est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$908now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$816
7 days−$2,636
14 days−$2,244
30 days−$3,214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$2,574
other 29% −$1,872
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -22.7% -30.1% 46% 46% -16.7%
≤30d 37 -23.0% -30.4% 46% 46% -17.8%
≤90d 44 -20.3% -27.9% 48% 48% -17.7%
all 75 -24.6% -31.8% 44% 44% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 44% -16.0%
10% -38.3% 43% -24.0%
15% -44.3% 36% -31.4%
20% -49.8% 21% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,134) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$554 vs −$542 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$908
Realized−$4,089
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses33 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$276
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage233d
Avg bet$831
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $915 $908 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $871 −$208 -24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,123 +$269 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,727 +$1,155 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $800 −$400 -50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,218 +$291 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,010 +$526 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $522 −$29 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $675 −$675 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $580 −$580 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $1,245 −$1,245 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1,544 −$1,544 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $296 −$296 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,134 −$1,134 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,280 −$1,235 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,679 +$619 +37%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,039 +$655 +63%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,319 +$589 +45%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,825 +$697 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $359 −$308 -86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $710 +$280 +39%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $750 +$240 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $985 +$820 +83%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,000 +$1,020 +102%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,028 −$396 -39%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,316 +$589 +45%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,053 +$372 +35%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $468 +$423 +90%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $904 +$393 +43%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $970 −$970 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $523 −$523 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $1,677 +$1,069 +64%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $1,186 −$1,186 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $3,847 +$471 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $1,127 −$1,127 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 21 $200 +$300 +150%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $600 +$210 +35%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $1,861 +$1,477 +79%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Mar 20 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $926 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $36 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $500 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $97 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $5 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $5 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $20 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $871 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,392 36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $373 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $733 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $3,882 42h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,727 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 34¢ $400 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $800 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,508 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,218 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,537 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,298 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $247 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1,107 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $317 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $907.50 · official $907.50 (match) · 373 history records