Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f3b…1161 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$28
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$1
other 20% +$1
sports 17% −$14
world 16% +$28
tech 4% −$1
finance 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.2% -5.7% 22% 11% -3.1%
≤30d 15 -3.3% -12.6% 33% 13% -3.7%
≤90d 32 -8.0% -16.7% 25% 6% -8.4%
all 38 -9.2% -17.9% 29% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 11% -8.9%
10% -25.7% 8% -17.7%
15% -32.9% 8% -25.6%
20% -39.5% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage539d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $78 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $15 −$1 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $80 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $16 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $68 +$28 +42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $39 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 24 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 22 $1 $0 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $94 +$1 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? Apr 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $276 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $3 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 02 $250 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $251 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $136 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $3 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 31 $251 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 30 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Jacksonville vs. North Alabama Feb 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Northern Colorado vs. Sacramento State Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Tennessee Tech vs. Little Rock Feb 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Denver vs. North Dakota Feb 14 $4 +$4 +100%
Oregon State vs. Portland Feb 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 07 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $63 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $64 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $19 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $39 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $39 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $48 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $37 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $37 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $16 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $52 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records